Projected final table after matchweek 4 · 100,000 simulated seasons
36 played270 to gohome npxG 1.75 / away 1.38k 10.8 att · 17.9 defas of 08 Oct 2026
After 36 matches, Bundesliga 2026/27 has 270 fixtures left. This season's numbers still carry only 23% of each team's rating; the rest is last season, regressed. The model says Bayern Munich win it 66% of the time. The biggest gap between points and chances belongs to Borussia Dortmund (+3.9 pts over xPts) and Borussia M.Gladbach (−2.8).
Title favourite
Bayern München
66% of 100,000 seasons
Most likely top 4
Bayern München, Dortmund, Leverkusen, RB Leipzig
ranked by top-4 odds
Most at risk
M'gladbach, Paderborn
40% / 37% relegation
Weight on this season
23%
after 4 games; k = 11 (attack), 18 (defence)
The projected table
#
Team
Now
P
Pts
xPts
Proj
10–90%
Title
Top 4
Releg
Finishing position 1 → 18
1
Bayern Munich
2nd ▲1
4
10
11.0
73.1
63–83
66%
96.7%
0%
2
Borussia Dortmund
1st ▼1
4
12
8.1
63.7
53–75
15%
74%
<0.1%
3
Bayer Leverkusen
5th ▲2
4
7
9.6
61.1
50–72
9.5%
65%
<0.1%
4
RasenBallsport Leipzig
9th ▲5
4
6
7.8
57.4
46–68
4.4%
47%
0.1%
5
Freiburg
3rd ▼2
4
10
8.8
53.2
42–64
1.8%
28%
0.5%
6
Mainz 05
6th ●
4
7
8.0
51.9
41–63
1.3%
23%
0.8%
7
VfB Stuttgart
15th ▲8
4
3
3.6
51.4
40–62
0.9%
21%
1.0%
8
Hoffenheim
14th ▲6
4
3
5.8
48.7
38–60
0.5%
13%
2.0%
9
Eintracht Frankfurt
10th ▲1
4
5
5.5
46.7
36–58
0.3%
8.9%
3.4%
10
FC Cologne
13th ▲3
4
4
5.8
46.2
35–57
0.2%
8.0%
3.8%
11
Augsburg
4th ▼7
4
7
4.6
44.9
34–56
0.2%
6.3%
4.9%
12
Werder Bremen
8th ▼4
4
7
4.6
43.3
32–54
0.1%
4.4%
7.6%
13
Elversbergpromoted
7th ▼6
4
7
3.4
39.3
29–50
<0.1%
1.6%
16%
14
Schalke 04promoted
11th ▼3
4
5
4.3
36.4
26–47
<0.1%
0.7%
26%
15
Union Berlin
17th ▲2
4
1
2.2
35.9
25–47
<0.1%
0.7%
29%
16
Hamburger SV
16th ●
4
3
2.8
35.8
25–47
<0.1%
0.6%
29%
17
Paderbornpromoted
12th ▼5
4
4
2.9
33.9
23–45
<0.1%
0.4%
37%
18
Borussia M.Gladbach
18th ●
4
0
2.8
33.2
23–44
<0.1%
0.2%
40%
Ordered by expected final points. Proj = mean points across 100,000 simulated
seasons; 10–90% = the range 80% of them land in. Arrows show the move from the current position
to the projected rank. The heat strip shades every finishing position by its probability
(green = top 4, orange = relegation).
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter1 / 3
The ratingsBundesliga · 2026/27
Signal vs noise // how sure can we be yet?
Each dot is a rating built from non-penalty xG, adjusted for opponent and venue, then pulled toward last season. On current evidence Bayern Munich have the best attack (2.55 npxG/game against an average side) and Borussia Dortmund the best defence (1.29 against). This season's attacking numbers outweigh last season's after 11 games (7 to go), defensive numbers after 18 (14 to go). Promoted sides (Elversberg, Schalke 04, Paderborn) start from the promoted-team prior (average of the 8 sides promoted in the previous 4 seasons) and their own data already carries 25% of the weight, because that prior is looser.
Attack & defence ratings, with 80% uncertainty
blended ratingprior (last season, regressed)this season alone80% intervalweight on this season
Rated per game against an average opponent at a neutral venue. The widest bars belong to
Elversberg. The simulator draws every team's attack and defence from these intervals before
playing out each season, so the uncertainty feeds straight into the odds. (P) = promoted.
The luck bar · points vs expected points so far
Expected points = the points a team would average from the chances in each game.
A big positive bar is the classic early-season mirage: finishing or goalkeeping running hot.
How much this season counts
Team
P
Att weight
Games to 50%
Def weight
Games to 50%
Prior att / def
This season
Blended
Bayern Munich
4
27%
7
18%
14
2.47 / 1.41
2.76 / 0.80
2.55 / 1.30
Borussia Dortmund
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.71 / 1.33
2.03 / 1.09
1.79 / 1.29
Bayer Leverkusen
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.86 / 1.45
2.37 / 0.85
2.00 / 1.35
RasenBallsport Leipzig
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.97 / 1.52
1.98 / 1.29
1.97 / 1.47
Freiburg
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.37 / 1.54
2.02 / 1.11
1.55 / 1.46
Mainz 05
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.65 / 1.70
2.28 / 1.36
1.82 / 1.64
VfB Stuttgart
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.78 / 1.43
2.09 / 2.43
1.87 / 1.61
Hoffenheim
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.68 / 1.49
1.96 / 2.04
1.75 / 1.59
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.43 / 1.55
2.12 / 2.13
1.62 / 1.65
FC Cologne
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.53 / 1.61
2.05 / 1.98
1.67 / 1.68
Augsburg
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.45 / 1.70
1.81 / 2.22
1.55 / 1.80
Werder Bremen
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.25 / 1.63
1.25 / 1.29
1.25 / 1.56
Elversberg promoted
4
27%
7
23%
10
1.24 / 1.82
1.56 / 2.21
1.33 / 1.91
Schalke 04 promoted
4
27%
7
23%
10
1.24 / 1.82
1.59 / 2.39
1.33 / 1.95
Union Berlin
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.38 / 1.49
1.07 / 2.71
1.30 / 1.71
Hamburger SV
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.26 / 1.64
1.02 / 2.07
1.20 / 1.72
Paderborn promoted
4
27%
7
23%
10
1.24 / 1.82
0.77 / 1.67
1.11 / 1.78
Borussia M.Gladbach
4
27%
7
18%
14
1.32 / 1.56
1.32 / 3.01
1.32 / 1.83
Weight w = n / (n + k). k is the number of games after which this season counts as much as the
prior, estimated from the league's own last five seasons (match-to-match noise divided by how much a
side's true level moves year to year). Ratings shown in npxG per game.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter2 / 3
Real vs MirageBundesliga · 2026/27
Real or mirage? // position vs the underlying numbers
Elversberg are the clearest mirage: 7th in the table, 14th on expected points; Hoffenheim are the opposite: 14th in the table but 8th on the chances; Bayern Munich look like the real thing.
Points per game vs expected points per game
Above the dashed line a team has more points than its chances have earned; below it, fewer.
Orange = mirage, teal = better than the table, green = numbers back the position.
The mirages
Mirage
Elversberg
7thnow
14thon xPts
13thprojected
+3.6 pts above their chances. 7th on 7 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 3.4 xPts, 14th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.56 for and 2.46 against per game (−0.89 difference). The meter projects 13th (39 pts, 80% range 29–50), with this season's data carrying 25% of the weight so far. Relegation 16%.
Mirage
Augsburg
4thnow
10thon xPts
11thprojected
+2.4 pts above their chances. 4th on 7 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 4.6 xPts, 10th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.14 for and 2.13 against per game (+0.01 difference). The meter projects 11th (45 pts, 80% range 34–56), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Top 4 6.3%.
Mirage
Borussia Dortmund
1stnow
4thon xPts
2ndprojected
+3.9 pts above their chances. 1st on 12 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.1 xPts, 4th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.15 for and 1.06 against per game (+1.09 difference). The meter projects 2nd (64 pts, 80% range 53–75), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Title 15%, top 4 74%.
Better than the table says
Better than the table
Hoffenheim
14thnow
8thon xPts
8thprojected
−2.8 pts below their chances. 14th on 3 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 5.8 xPts, 8th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.99 for and 2.09 against per game (−0.10 difference). The meter projects 8th (49 pts, 80% range 38–60), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Top 4 13%.
Better than the table
FC Cologne
13thnow
7thon xPts
10thprojected
−1.8 pts below their chances. 13th on 4 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 5.8 xPts, 7th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.05 for and 1.99 against per game (+0.06 difference). The meter projects 10th (46 pts, 80% range 35–57), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Top 4 8.0%.
Better than the table
Bayer Leverkusen
5thnow
2ndon xPts
3rdprojected
−2.6 pts below their chances. 5th on 7 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 9.6 xPts, 2nd-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.61 for and 0.86 against per game (+1.75 difference). The meter projects 3rd (61 pts, 80% range 50–72), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Title 9.5%, top 4 65%.
The real deal
Real
Bayern Munich
2ndnow
1ston xPts
1stprojected
The numbers back the position. 2nd on 10 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 11.0 xPts, 1st-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 3.14 for and 0.75 against per game (+2.39 difference). The meter projects 1st (73 pts, 80% range 63–83), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Title 66%, top 4 96.7%.
Real
Freiburg
3rdnow
3rdon xPts
5thprojected
The numbers back the position. 3rd on 10 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.8 xPts, 3rd-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.16 for and 1.01 against per game (+1.15 difference). The meter projects 5th (53 pts, 80% range 42–64), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Title 1.8%, top 4 28%.
Real
Mainz 05
6thnow
5thon xPts
6thprojected
The numbers back the position. 6th on 7 pts from 4 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.0 xPts, 5th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.41 for and 1.17 against per game (+1.24 difference). The meter projects 6th (52 pts, 80% range 41–63), with this season's data carrying 23% of the weight so far. Title 1.3%, top 4 23%.
How the meter works
Non-penalty xG for every match of 2021/22 to 2026/27. Ratings are a multiplicative attack × defence model with separate home (1.75) and away (1.38) npxG base rates, plus 0.12 penalty xG per team-match. Prior = last season regressed to the mean (year-on-year correlation 0.73 attack, 0.58 defence). Shrinkage k = σ²/τ² = 10.8 games (attack) and 17.9 (defence), from 64 team-season pairs; promoted sides use k = 10.8 / 13.2. 100,000 seasons simulated with Poisson scorelines in 2.1s; ties broken on goal difference then goals scored.
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer Leverkusen
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Freiburg
Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Cologne
Augsburg
Werder Bremen
Elversberg promoted
Schalke 04 promoted
Union Berlin
Hamburger SV
Paderborn promoted
Borussia M.Gladbach