Projected final table after matchweek 7 · 100,000 simulated seasons
69 played311 to gohome npxG 1.53 / away 1.16k 14.6 att · 31.6 defas of 08 Oct 2026
After 69 matches, this season's numbers carry only 32% attack / 18% defence of each team's rating; the rest is last season, regressed. Barcelona win the title in 87% of 100,000 simulated seasons. Biggest gaps between points and chances: Real Betis (+6.2 pts over xPts) and Villarreal (−5.3).
Title favourite
Barcelona
87% of 100,000 seasons
Most likely top 4
Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, Real Betis
ranked by top-4 odds
Most at risk
Málaga, Racing Santander, Getafe
76% / 32% / 31% relegation
Weight on this season
32% att · 18% def
after 7 games; promoted sides 32% attack / 20% defence
The projected table
#
Team
Now
P
Pts
xPts
Proj
10–90%
Title
Top 4
Releg
Finishing position 1 → 20
1
Barcelona
1st ●
7
21
18.4
87.6
78–97
87%
99.8%
0%
2
Real Madrid
4th ▲2
7
15
16.5
73.7
64–83
9.2%
89%
0%
3
Atletico Madrid
2nd ▼1
7
16
12.8
66.4
56–77
1.9%
62%
<0.1%
4
Real Betis
3rd ▼1
7
16
9.8
65.8
56–76
1.6%
59%
<0.1%
5
Villarreal
9th ▲4
7
8
13.3
59.6
49–70
0.2%
27%
0.4%
6
Athletic Club
10th ▲4
6
8
12.2
58.0
47–69
0.2%
23%
0.8%
7
Alaves
6th ▼1
7
11
11.5
55.5
45–66
0.1%
14%
1.4%
8
Rayo Vallecano
12th ▲4
7
8
7.7
53.5
43–64
<0.1%
9.6%
2.7%
9
Real Sociedad
8th ▼1
7
10
8.0
51.7
41–62
<0.1%
6.0%
4.0%
10
Levante
17th ▲7
6
5
6.4
49.2
39–60
<0.1%
3.7%
7.6%
11
Sevilla
5th ▼6
7
13
8.3
47.2
37–57
<0.1%
2.0%
11%
12
Espanyol
15th ▲3
7
7
9.6
45.9
36–56
<0.1%
1.4%
14%
13
Osasuna
13th ●
7
8
9.1
45.7
36–56
<0.1%
1.4%
15%
14
Celta Vigo
14th ●
7
7
8.7
44.2
34–55
<0.1%
1.0%
19%
15
Deportivo La Corunapromoted
7th ▼8
7
10
7.8
43.1
33–53
0%
0.6%
24%
16
Elche
18th ▲2
7
5
7.5
41.7
32–52
0%
0.4%
30%
17
Getafe
11th ▼6
7
8
6.7
41.4
31–52
0%
0.4%
31%
18
Valencia
19th ▲1
7
4
5.8
41.4
31–52
0%
0.4%
31%
19
Racing Santanderpromoted
16th ▼3
7
7
8.1
41.2
31–51
0%
0.3%
32%
20
Malagapromoted
20th ●
7
3
5.4
32.3
23–42
0%
<0.1%
76%
Ordered by expected final points. Proj = mean points across 100,000 simulated
seasons; 10–90% = the range 80% of them land in. Arrows: current position → projected rank.
Heat strip = probability of each finishing position (green = top 4, orange = relegation).
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter1 / 10
The ratingsLa Liga · 2026/27
Who is actually good? // with the error bars left in
Best attack on current evidence: Barcelona (2.66 non-penalty xG
per game against an average side). Best defence: Athletic Club (1.14 against).
After 7 games the bars are wide: this season carries just 32% attack / 18% defence of every rating.
blended ratingprior (last season, regressed)this season alone80% uncertainty
Ratings are per game against an average opponent at a neutral ground, adjusted for who each team
has played and where. Widest bars: Athletic Club. The simulator draws every team's ratings from these
bars before playing out each season, so the uncertainty feeds straight into the odds. (P) = promoted.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter2 / 10
The luck barLa Liga · 2026/27
Points vs chances // who is running hot?
Real Betis have 16 points from chances worth 9.8:
the biggest overperformance in the league (+6.2). Villarreal sit at the other end,
−5.3 points short of what their chances earned. 8 of 20 sides are ahead of their xPts.
Expected points (xPts) = the points a team would average from the chances in each of its games.
A big positive bar is the classic early-season mirage: finishing or goalkeeping running hot, which rarely lasts.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter3 / 10
How much this season countsLa Liga · 2026/27
Signal or noise? // when to start believing
Today this season carries 32% attack / 18% defence of each rating. Attacking numbers
outweigh last season after 15 games (8 to go); defensive numbers take 32
(25 to go), because what a side concedes swings more from game to game. Promoted sides start from a looser prior, so their own numbers already carry 32% attack / 20% defence.
Weight = games / (games + k), k fitted on the last 5 seasons. Rows run from last season (ring)
to this season alone (diamond); the dot is the blend used. Interactive in the HTML version.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter4 / 10
Real vs MirageLa Liga · 2026/27
Real or mirage? // position vs the underlying numbers
Sevilla are the clearest mirage: 5th in the table, 11th on expected points; Villarreal are the opposite: 9th in the table, 3rd on the chances; Real Madrid look like the real thing.
Above the dashed line a team has more points than its chances have earned; below it, fewer.
Orange = mirage, teal = better than the table, green = numbers back the position.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter5 / 10
The miragesLa Liga · 2026/27
The mirages // points the chances don't support
Sevilla, Real Betis, Deportivo La Coruna have 13.1 more points between them than their chances support. Expect regression.
Mirage
Sevilla
5thnow
11thon xPts
11thprojected
Points13
xPts8.3
npxG for / g0.85
npxG against / g1.50
Projected pts47 (37–57)
Top 42.0%
+4.7 pts above their chances. 5th on 13 pts from 7 games, but the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.3 xPts, 11th-best in the league. The meter projects 11th on 47 pts (80% range 37–57). This season's data carries 32% attack / 18% defence of their rating so far.
+6.2 pts above their chances. 3rd on 16 pts from 7 games, but the chances they have created and allowed are worth 9.8 xPts, 7th-best in the league. The meter projects 4th on 66 pts (80% range 56–76). This season's data carries 32% attack / 18% defence of their rating so far.
+2.2 pts above their chances. 7th on 10 pts from 7 games, but the chances they have created and allowed are worth 7.8 xPts, 14th-best in the league. The meter projects 15th on 43 pts (80% range 33–53). This season's data carries 32% attack / 20% defence of their rating so far.
Better than the table // the chances say they're due
Villarreal, Espanyol, Athletic Club are 12.1 points short of their chances between them. The table should come to them.
Better than the table
Villarreal
9thnow
3rdon xPts
5thprojected
Points8
xPts13.3
npxG for / g2.48
npxG against / g1.53
Projected pts60 (49–70)
Top 427%
−5.3 pts below their chances. 9th on 8 pts from 7 games, but the chances they have created and allowed are worth 13.3 xPts, 3rd-best in the league. The meter projects 5th on 60 pts (80% range 49–70). This season's data carries 32% attack / 18% defence of their rating so far.
−2.6 pts below their chances. 15th on 7 pts from 7 games, but the chances they have created and allowed are worth 9.6 xPts, 8th-best in the league. The meter projects 12th on 46 pts (80% range 36–56). This season's data carries 32% attack / 18% defence of their rating so far.
−4.2 pts below their chances. 10th on 8 pts from 6 games, but the chances they have created and allowed are worth 12.2 xPts, 5th-best in the league. The meter projects 6th on 58 pts (80% range 47–69). This season's data carries 29% attack / 16% defence of their rating so far.
Real Madrid, Alaves, Valencia: high in the table, and the chances say it is no fluke.
Real
Real Madrid
4thnow
2ndon xPts
2ndprojected
Points15
xPts16.5
npxG for / g2.60
npxG against / g1.01
Projected pts74 (64–83)
Title9.2%
The numbers back the position. 4th on 15 pts from 7 games, and the chances back it: 16.5 xPts, 2nd-best in the league. The meter projects 2nd on 74 pts (80% range 64–83). This season's data carries 32% attack / 18% defence of their rating so far.
The numbers back the position. 6th on 11 pts from 7 games, and the chances back it: 11.5 xPts, 6th-best in the league. The meter projects 7th on 55 pts (80% range 45–66). This season's data carries 32% attack / 18% defence of their rating so far.
The numbers back the position. 19th on 4 pts from 7 games, and the chances back it: 5.8 xPts, 19th-best in the league. The meter projects 18th on 41 pts (80% range 31–52). This season's data carries 32% attack / 18% defence of their rating so far.
One rule: early in a season, trust the numbers only as much as they deserve. Every
figure here is measured on La Liga's own last 5 seasons, not assumed.
What goes in
Every match from 2021/22 to 2026/27: non-penalty expected goals (npxG) for and against, 1,900 historical matches plus 69 this season. Each team gets an attack and a defence rating, adjusted for the opponents it has faced and for home advantage (home sides average 1.53 npxG, away sides 1.16). Penalties are added back at 0.13 xG per team per game.
How sure we are
After 7 games, xG is still mostly noise, so each rating is a blend: games / (games + k) from this season, the rest from last season pulled 20% (attack) and 39% (defence) back toward average. k is measured on this league's own history: match-to-match noise divided by how much a team really changes between seasons. Result: k = 14.6 games for attack and 31.6 for defence, so today this season carries 32% attack / 18% defence.
Promoted sides
Promoted teams have no top-flight last season, so they start from the average of the 12 sides promoted in the previous 4 seasons: 1.09 npxG for and 1.58 against per game. That prior is less certain (promoted defences vary a lot), so their own data counts faster: k = 14.6 attack, 28.7 defence.
Simulating the season
100,000 full seasons. Each one first draws every team's attack and defence from its uncertainty range, then plays all 311 remaining fixtures with Poisson scorelines. Done in 4.2s of vectorised numpy.
Draws
Pure Poisson under-predicts draws: over 1,900 matches the real draw rate was 26.2% but the model gave 23.7%. A Dixon-Coles low-score correction fixes it. Maximum likelihood gives rho -0.006 (23.8% draws), which is not enough, so rho is calibrated to the real draw rate: rho -0.113, 26.2% on the history. Simulated draw rate for the rest of this season: 25.0% (Poisson alone: 22.8%).
Tiebreaks and checks
Level on points, the head-to-head mini-league between the tied sides decides first (points, then goal difference), then overall goal difference and goals scored, as in La Liga. In 75% of simulated seasons that changed at least one finishing position versus a plain goal-difference tiebreak. Checks on this run: every team's finishing odds sum to 100%, title odds sum to 100% across the league, played + remaining = 38 for every side, and current points match the league table for all 20 teams.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter9 / 10
The numbersLa Liga · 2026/27
Every number // the full ratings table
Each side's weight on this season, its prior, this season's raw rating, the blend the simulator uses and
the 80% uncertainty around it, all in npxG per game (attack / defence).
Team
P
Att wt
Def wt
Prior
This season
Blend
80% ±
Proj pts
Barcelona
7
32%
18%
2.18 / 1.29
3.66 / 1.17
2.66 / 1.27
±0.20 / ±0.15
87.6
Real Madrid
7
32%
18%
1.75 / 1.22
2.47 / 0.99
1.99 / 1.18
±0.20 / ±0.15
73.7
Atletico Madrid
7
32%
18%
1.59 / 1.30
1.70 / 0.99
1.63 / 1.25
±0.20 / ±0.15
66.4
Real Betis
7
32%
18%
1.47 / 1.24
1.95 / 1.57
1.62 / 1.30
±0.20 / ±0.15
65.8
Villarreal
7
32%
18%
1.54 / 1.28
2.31 / 1.62
1.79 / 1.34
±0.20 / ±0.15
59.6
Athletic Club
6
29%
16%
1.31 / 1.19
1.68 / 0.91
1.42 / 1.14
±0.21 / ±0.15
58.0
Alaves
7
32%
18%
1.29 / 1.32
1.51 / 0.96
1.36 / 1.26
±0.20 / ±0.15
55.5
Rayo Vallecano
7
32%
18%
1.45 / 1.33
1.37 / 1.32
1.42 / 1.33
±0.20 / ±0.15
53.5
Real Sociedad
7
32%
18%
1.38 / 1.39
1.22 / 1.54
1.33 / 1.41
±0.20 / ±0.15
51.7
Levante
6
29%
16%
1.42 / 1.50
1.54 / 1.62
1.46 / 1.52
±0.21 / ±0.15
49.2
Sevilla
7
32%
18%
1.01 / 1.37
0.85 / 1.26
0.96 / 1.35
±0.20 / ±0.15
47.2
Espanyol
7
32%
18%
1.28 / 1.48
1.30 / 1.40
1.29 / 1.47
±0.20 / ±0.15
45.9
Osasuna
7
32%
18%
1.17 / 1.23
0.96 / 1.67
1.10 / 1.31
±0.20 / ±0.15
45.7
Celta Vigo
7
32%
18%
1.23 / 1.30
0.95 / 1.47
1.14 / 1.33
±0.20 / ±0.15
44.2
Deportivo La Coruna P
7
32%
20%
1.09 / 1.58
1.23 / 1.48
1.14 / 1.56
±0.20 / ±0.16
43.1
Elche
7
32%
18%
1.18 / 1.49
1.23 / 1.78
1.19 / 1.55
±0.20 / ±0.15
41.7
Getafe
7
32%
18%
0.93 / 1.19
0.81 / 1.41
0.89 / 1.23
±0.20 / ±0.15
41.4
Valencia
7
32%
18%
1.24 / 1.29
0.78 / 1.52
1.09 / 1.33
±0.20 / ±0.15
41.4
Racing Santander P
7
32%
20%
1.09 / 1.58
1.17 / 1.55
1.12 / 1.58
±0.20 / ±0.16
41.2
Malaga P
7
32%
20%
1.09 / 1.58
0.62 / 1.71
0.94 / 1.61
±0.20 / ±0.16
32.3
P = promoted. Weight = games / (games + k): k 14.6 / 31.6 for established sides
and 14.6 / 28.7 for promoted sides.
Prior = last season's rating regressed toward average (or the promoted-team prior).
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Real Betis
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
Levante
Sevilla
Espanyol
Osasuna
Celta Vigo
Deportivo La Coruna promoted
Elche
Getafe
Valencia
Racing Santander promoted
Malaga promoted