Projected final table after matchweek 5 · 100,000 simulated seasons
45 played261 to gohome npxG 1.60 / away 1.30k 14.5 att · 17.0 defas of 08 Oct 2026
After 45 matches, Ligue 1 2026/27 has 261 fixtures left. This season's numbers still carry only 25% of each team's rating; the rest is last season, regressed. The model says Paris Saint Germain win it 49% of the time. The biggest gap between points and chances belongs to Monaco (+6.2 pts over xPts) and Lens (−4.8).
Title favourite
PSG
49% of 100,000 seasons
Most likely top 3
PSG, Monaco, Lens
ranked by top-3 odds
Most at risk
Troyes, Le Havre
53% / 35% relegation
Weight on this season
25%
after 5 games; k = 14 (attack), 17 (defence)
The projected table
#
Team
Now
P
Pts
xPts
Proj
10–90%
Title
Top 3
Releg
Finishing position 1 → 18
1
Paris Saint Germain
6th ▲5
5
8
9.7
65.9
56–76
49%
81%
<0.1%
2
Monaco
1st ▼1
5
13
6.8
58.8
48–69
15%
47%
<0.1%
3
Lens
15th ▲12
5
4
8.8
56.3
46–66
9.5%
38%
0.2%
4
Lyon
2nd ▼2
5
11
9.2
55.2
45–66
7.8%
31%
0.3%
5
Paris FC
3rd ▼2
5
11
11.1
53.4
43–64
5.3%
24%
0.6%
6
Lille
4th ▼2
5
10
6.1
53.3
43–64
5.0%
24%
0.6%
7
Rennes
5th ▼2
5
10
7.5
50.7
40–61
2.4%
14%
1.4%
8
Strasbourg
8th ●
5
7
4.6
49.8
39–60
2.2%
13%
1.7%
9
Marseille
17th ▲8
5
3
5.3
48.3
38–59
1.3%
9.5%
2.5%
10
Brest
11th ▲1
5
5
9.8
46.4
36–57
0.9%
6.7%
4.0%
11
Toulouse
13th ▲2
5
5
8.9
46.2
36–57
0.8%
6.2%
4.1%
12
Lorient
12th ●
5
5
6.4
42.9
32–54
0.3%
2.8%
8.8%
13
Auxerre
10th ▼3
5
6
5.7
40.4
30–51
0.2%
1.4%
15%
14
Angers
7th ▼7
5
7
7.4
38.1
28–48
<0.1%
0.7%
22%
15
Nice
14th ▼1
5
5
4.1
37.8
28–48
<0.1%
0.6%
24%
16
Le Manspromoted
9th ▼7
5
6
5.2
36.9
27–47
<0.1%
0.5%
28%
17
Le Havre
18th ▲1
5
2
4.4
35.2
25–46
<0.1%
0.3%
35%
18
Troyespromoted
16th ▼2
5
4
3.9
32.0
22–42
<0.1%
<0.1%
53%
Ordered by expected final points. Proj = mean points across 100,000 simulated
seasons; 10–90% = the range 80% of them land in. Arrows show the move from the current position
to the projected rank. The heat strip shades every finishing position by its probability
(green = top 3, orange = relegation).
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter1 / 3
The ratingsLigue 1 · 2026/27
Signal vs noise // how sure can we be yet?
Each dot is a rating built from non-penalty xG, adjusted for opponent and venue, then pulled toward last season. On current evidence Lens have the best attack (2.06 npxG/game against an average side) and Paris Saint Germain the best defence (1.13 against). This season's attacking numbers outweigh last season's after 14 games (10 to go), defensive numbers after 17 (12 to go). Promoted sides (Le Mans, Troyes) start from the promoted-team prior (average of the 11 sides promoted in the previous 4 seasons) and their own data already carries 28% of the weight, because that prior is looser.
Attack & defence ratings, with 80% uncertainty
blended ratingprior (last season, regressed)this season alone80% intervalweight on this season
Rated per game against an average opponent at a neutral venue. The widest bars belong to
Le Mans. The simulator draws every team's attack and defence from these intervals before
playing out each season, so the uncertainty feeds straight into the odds. (P) = promoted.
The luck bar · points vs expected points so far
Expected points = the points a team would average from the chances in each game.
A big positive bar is the classic early-season mirage: finishing or goalkeeping running hot.
How much this season counts
Team
P
Att weight
Games to 50%
Def weight
Games to 50%
Prior att / def
This season
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.97 / 1.16
2.27 / 1.00
2.05 / 1.13
Monaco
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.71 / 1.47
1.25 / 1.05
1.59 / 1.38
Lens
5
26%
10
23%
12
2.06 / 1.35
2.05 / 1.58
2.06 / 1.40
Lyon
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.54 / 1.40
1.74 / 1.27
1.59 / 1.37
Paris FC
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.40 / 1.50
1.45 / 0.62
1.42 / 1.30
Lille
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.54 / 1.26
1.43 / 1.74
1.52 / 1.37
Rennes
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.56 / 1.60
1.85 / 1.88
1.64 / 1.67
Strasbourg
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.60 / 1.37
1.22 / 1.54
1.50 / 1.41
Marseille
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.83 / 1.44
1.63 / 2.01
1.78 / 1.57
Brest
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.27 / 1.53
2.00 / 1.03
1.46 / 1.42
Toulouse
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.31 / 1.33
1.94 / 1.77
1.47 / 1.43
Lorient
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.36 / 1.47
1.10 / 1.14
1.29 / 1.40
Auxerre
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.21 / 1.44
1.13 / 1.66
1.19 / 1.49
Angers
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.02 / 1.55
1.49 / 1.69
1.14 / 1.58
Nice
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.38 / 1.58
1.05 / 2.03
1.29 / 1.68
Le Mans promoted
5
33%
6
23%
12
1.09 / 1.63
1.33 / 1.86
1.17 / 1.68
Le Havre
5
26%
10
23%
12
1.16 / 1.48
1.20 / 1.72
1.17 / 1.54
Troyes promoted
5
33%
6
23%
12
1.09 / 1.63
1.10 / 2.22
1.09 / 1.77
Weight w = n / (n + k). k is the number of games after which this season counts as much as the
prior, estimated from the league's own last five seasons (match-to-match noise divided by how much a
side's true level moves year to year). Ratings shown in npxG per game.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter2 / 3
Real vs MirageLigue 1 · 2026/27
Real or mirage? // position vs the underlying numbers
Monaco are the clearest mirage: 1st in the table, 9th on expected points; Lens are the opposite: 15th in the table but 6th on the chances; Paris FC look like the real thing.
Points per game vs expected points per game
Above the dashed line a team has more points than its chances have earned; below it, fewer.
Orange = mirage, teal = better than the table, green = numbers back the position.
The mirages
Mirage
Monaco
1stnow
9thon xPts
2ndprojected
+6.2 pts above their chances. 1st on 13 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 6.8 xPts, 9th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.23 for and 1.32 against per game (−0.08 difference). The meter projects 2nd (59 pts, 80% range 48–69), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Title 15%, top 3 47%.
Mirage
Lille
4thnow
11thon xPts
6thprojected
+3.9 pts above their chances. 4th on 10 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 6.1 xPts, 11th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.48 for and 1.78 against per game (−0.30 difference). The meter projects 6th (53 pts, 80% range 43–64), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Title 5.0%, top 3 24%.
Mirage
Strasbourg
8thnow
15thon xPts
8thprojected
+2.4 pts above their chances. 8th on 7 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 4.6 xPts, 15th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.29 for and 1.62 against per game (−0.33 difference). The meter projects 8th (50 pts, 80% range 39–60), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Title 2.2%, top 3 13%.
Better than the table says
Better than the table
Lens
15thnow
6thon xPts
3rdprojected
−4.8 pts below their chances. 15th on 4 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.8 xPts, 6th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.05 for and 1.51 against per game (+0.54 difference). The meter projects 3rd (56 pts, 80% range 46–66), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Title 9.5%, top 3 38%.
Better than the table
Brest
11thnow
2ndon xPts
10thprojected
−4.8 pts below their chances. 11th on 5 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 9.8 xPts, 2nd-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.01 for and 1.01 against per game (+1.01 difference). The meter projects 10th (46 pts, 80% range 36–57), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Top 3 6.7%.
Better than the table
Toulouse
13thnow
5thon xPts
11thprojected
−3.9 pts below their chances. 13th on 5 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.9 xPts, 5th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.97 for and 1.66 against per game (+0.31 difference). The meter projects 11th (46 pts, 80% range 36–57), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Top 3 6.2%.
The real deal
Real
Paris FC
3rdnow
1ston xPts
5thprojected
The numbers back the position. 3rd on 11 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 11.1 xPts, 1st-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.58 for and 0.66 against per game (+0.92 difference). The meter projects 5th (53 pts, 80% range 43–64), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Title 5.3%, top 3 24%.
Real
Paris Saint Germain
6thnow
3rdon xPts
1stprojected
The numbers back the position. 6th on 8 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 9.7 xPts, 3rd-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 2.19 for and 1.16 against per game (+1.03 difference). The meter projects 1st (66 pts, 80% range 56–76), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Title 49%, top 3 81%.
Real
Angers
7thnow
8thon xPts
14thprojected
The numbers back the position. 7th on 7 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 7.4 xPts, 8th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.67 for and 1.51 against per game (+0.17 difference). The meter projects 14th (38 pts, 80% range 28–48), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Relegation 22%.
How the meter works
Non-penalty xG for every match of 2021/22 to 2026/27. Ratings are a multiplicative attack × defence model with separate home (1.60) and away (1.30) npxG base rates, plus 0.14 penalty xG per team-match. Prior = last season regressed to the mean (year-on-year correlation 0.78 attack, 0.55 defence). Shrinkage k = σ²/τ² = 14.5 games (attack) and 17.0 (defence), from 63 team-season pairs; promoted sides use k = 10.3 / 17.0. 100,000 seasons simulated with Poisson scorelines in 2.0s; ties broken on goal difference then goals scored.
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
Lens
Lyon
Paris FC
Lille
Rennes
Strasbourg
Marseille
Brest
Toulouse
Lorient
Auxerre
Angers
Nice
Le Mans promoted
Le Havre
Troyes promoted