Projected final table after matchweek 5 · 100,000 simulated seasons
50 played330 to gohome npxG 1.41 / away 1.18k 21.3 att · 31.6 defas of 08 Oct 2026
After 50 matches, Serie A 2026/27 has 330 fixtures left. This season's numbers still carry only 17% of each team's rating; the rest is last season, regressed. The model says Inter win it 65% of the time. The biggest gap between points and chances belongs to Cagliari (+6.2 pts over xPts) and Bologna (−6.0).
Title favourite
Inter
65% of 100,000 seasons
Most likely top 4
Inter, Juventus, Roma, Como
ranked by top-4 odds
Most at risk
Venezia, Lecce, Parma
73% / 48% / 46% relegation
Weight on this season
17%
after 5 games; k = 21 (attack), 32 (defence)
The projected table
#
Team
Now
P
Pts
xPts
Proj
10–90%
Title
Top 4
Releg
Finishing position 1 → 20
1
Inter
2nd ▲1
5
13
11.1
82.8
73–92
65%
97.4%
0%
2
Juventus
7th ▲5
5
10
12.1
73.4
63–83
14%
79%
0%
3
Roma
1st ▼2
5
13
12.4
72.7
62–83
12%
75%
<0.1%
4
Como
8th ▲4
5
10
9.1
67.9
58–78
4.8%
54%
<0.1%
5
Napoli
9th ▲4
5
7
8.8
64.6
54–75
1.9%
36%
<0.1%
6
AC Milan
5th ▼1
5
11
8.9
64.3
54–75
2.0%
35%
<0.1%
7
Lazio
3rd ▼4
5
13
8.0
57.6
47–68
0.3%
11%
0.4%
8
Atalanta
11th ▲3
5
6
2.7
54.9
44–65
0.1%
6.4%
1.1%
9
Sassuolo
10th ▲1
5
7
7.6
50.4
40–61
<0.1%
2.3%
3.7%
10
Cagliari
4th ▼6
5
12
5.8
47.4
37–58
<0.1%
0.9%
6.9%
11
Bologna
18th ▲7
5
2
8.0
45.9
35–56
<0.1%
0.7%
11%
12
Fiorentina
17th ▲5
5
4
6.3
45.3
35–56
<0.1%
0.5%
12%
13
Frosinonepromoted
6th ▼7
5
10
5.2
45.1
35–56
<0.1%
0.6%
12%
14
Udinese
13th ▼1
5
4
5.0
44.9
35–55
<0.1%
0.5%
13%
15
Torino
14th ▼1
5
4
5.0
44.0
34–54
0%
0.3%
15%
16
Monzapromoted
16th ●
5
4
8.7
42.2
32–53
<0.1%
0.3%
21%
17
Genoa
19th ▲2
5
1
4.6
38.5
28–49
0%
<0.1%
37%
18
Parma Calcio 1913
15th ▼3
5
4
3.4
36.6
27–47
0%
<0.1%
46%
19
Lecce
12th ▼7
5
6
2.2
36.3
27–46
0%
<0.1%
48%
20
Veneziapromoted
20th ●
5
0
5.5
31.2
21–41
0%
<0.1%
73%
Ordered by expected final points. Proj = mean points across 100,000 simulated
seasons; 10–90% = the range 80% of them land in. Arrows show the move from the current position
to the projected rank. The heat strip shades every finishing position by its probability
(green = top 4, orange = relegation).
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter1 / 3
The ratingsSerie A · 2026/27
Signal vs noise // how sure can we be yet?
Each dot is a rating built from non-penalty xG, adjusted for opponent and venue, then pulled toward last season. On current evidence Inter have the best attack (2.23 npxG/game against an average side) and Juventus the best defence (0.90 against). This season's attacking numbers outweigh last season's after 21 games (17 to go), defensive numbers after 32 (27 to go). Promoted sides (Frosinone, Monza, Venezia) start from the promoted-team prior (average of the 12 sides promoted in the previous 4 seasons) and their own data already carries 24% of the weight, because that prior is looser.
Attack & defence ratings, with 80% uncertainty
blended ratingprior (last season, regressed)this season alone80% intervalweight on this season
Rated per game against an average opponent at a neutral venue. The widest bars belong to
Frosinone. The simulator draws every team's attack and defence from these intervals before
playing out each season, so the uncertainty feeds straight into the odds. (P) = promoted.
The luck bar · points vs expected points so far
Expected points = the points a team would average from the chances in each game.
A big positive bar is the classic early-season mirage: finishing or goalkeeping running hot.
How much this season counts
Team
P
Att weight
Games to 50%
Def weight
Games to 50%
Prior att / def
This season
Blended
Inter
5
19%
17
14%
27
2.01 / 0.97
3.17 / 1.41
2.23 / 1.03
Juventus
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.75 / 0.98
1.67 / 0.41
1.73 / 0.90
Roma
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.50 / 1.13
2.94 / 0.97
1.78 / 1.11
Como
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.60 / 1.04
2.20 / 1.71
1.71 / 1.13
Napoli
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.41 / 1.01
1.93 / 0.93
1.51 / 1.00
AC Milan
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.48 / 1.14
1.65 / 1.10
1.51 / 1.14
Lazio
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.16 / 1.21
1.59 / 1.39
1.24 / 1.24
Atalanta
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.67 / 1.30
0.77 / 1.74
1.50 / 1.36
Sassuolo
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.21 / 1.45
1.91 / 1.45
1.34 / 1.45
Cagliari
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.15 / 1.52
0.83 / 1.49
1.09 / 1.52
Bologna
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.21 / 1.29
1.31 / 1.18
1.23 / 1.28
Fiorentina
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.27 / 1.38
1.31 / 1.78
1.28 / 1.44
Frosinone promoted
5
19%
17
28%
8
1.07 / 1.50
1.56 / 2.00
1.16 / 1.64
Udinese
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.17 / 1.36
1.44 / 1.79
1.22 / 1.42
Torino
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.23 / 1.47
1.05 / 1.36
1.20 / 1.45
Monza promoted
5
19%
17
28%
8
1.07 / 1.50
1.72 / 1.50
1.20 / 1.50
Genoa
5
19%
17
14%
27
1.14 / 1.35
0.81 / 1.60
1.07 / 1.39
Parma Calcio 1913
5
19%
17
14%
27
0.97 / 1.42
0.86 / 1.83
0.95 / 1.48
Lecce
5
19%
17
14%
27
0.97 / 1.48
1.10 / 2.88
0.99 / 1.67
Venezia promoted
5
19%
17
28%
8
1.07 / 1.50
1.39 / 2.50
1.13 / 1.78
Weight w = n / (n + k). k is the number of games after which this season counts as much as the
prior, estimated from the league's own last five seasons (match-to-match noise divided by how much a
side's true level moves year to year). Ratings shown in npxG per game.
League Truth Meter · @kashondacounter2 / 3
Real vs MirageSerie A · 2026/27
Real or mirage? // position vs the underlying numbers
Cagliari are the clearest mirage: 4th in the table, 12th on expected points; Bologna are the opposite: 18th in the table but 8th on the chances; Roma look like the real thing.
Points per game vs expected points per game
Above the dashed line a team has more points than its chances have earned; below it, fewer.
Orange = mirage, teal = better than the table, green = numbers back the position.
The mirages
Mirage
Cagliari
4thnow
12thon xPts
10thprojected
+6.2 pts above their chances. 4th on 12 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 5.8 xPts, 12th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 0.94 for and 1.75 against per game (−0.82 difference). The meter projects 10th (47 pts, 80% range 37–58), with this season's data carrying 16% of the weight so far. Relegation 6.9%.
Mirage
Frosinone
6thnow
14thon xPts
13thprojected
+4.8 pts above their chances. 6th on 10 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 5.2 xPts, 14th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.62 for and 2.05 against per game (−0.43 difference). The meter projects 13th (45 pts, 80% range 35–56), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Relegation 12%.
Mirage
Lecce
12thnow
20thon xPts
19thprojected
+3.8 pts above their chances. 12th on 6 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 2.2 xPts, 20th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.25 for and 2.96 against per game (−1.71 difference). The meter projects 19th (36 pts, 80% range 27–46), with this season's data carrying 16% of the weight so far. Relegation 48%.
Better than the table says
Better than the table
Bologna
18thnow
8thon xPts
11thprojected
−6.0 pts below their chances. 18th on 2 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.0 xPts, 8th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.43 for and 1.21 against per game (+0.23 difference). The meter projects 11th (46 pts, 80% range 35–56), with this season's data carrying 16% of the weight so far. Relegation 11%.
Better than the table
Monza
16thnow
7thon xPts
16thprojected
−4.7 pts below their chances. 16th on 4 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.7 xPts, 7th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.83 for and 1.48 against per game (+0.35 difference). The meter projects 16th (42 pts, 80% range 32–53), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Relegation 21%.
Better than the table
Venezia
20thnow
13thon xPts
20thprojected
−5.5 pts below their chances. 20th on 0 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 5.5 xPts, 13th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.65 for and 2.32 against per game (−0.67 difference). The meter projects 20th (31 pts, 80% range 21–41), with this season's data carrying 24% of the weight so far. Relegation 73%.
The real deal
Real
Roma
1stnow
1ston xPts
3rdprojected
The numbers back the position. 1st on 13 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 12.4 xPts, 1st-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 3.22 for and 1.11 against per game (+2.11 difference). The meter projects 3rd (73 pts, 80% range 62–83), with this season's data carrying 16% of the weight so far. Title 12%, top 4 75%.
Real
Inter
2ndnow
3rdon xPts
1stprojected
The numbers back the position. 2nd on 13 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 11.1 xPts, 3rd-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 3.11 for and 1.49 against per game (+1.62 difference). The meter projects 1st (83 pts, 80% range 73–92), with this season's data carrying 16% of the weight so far. Title 65%, top 4 97.4%.
Real
AC Milan
5thnow
5thon xPts
6thprojected
The numbers back the position. 5th on 11 pts from 5 games; the chances they have created and allowed are worth 8.9 xPts, 5th-best in the league. Non-penalty xG 1.94 for and 1.18 against per game (+0.75 difference). The meter projects 6th (64 pts, 80% range 54–75), with this season's data carrying 16% of the weight so far. Title 2.0%, top 4 35%.
How the meter works
Non-penalty xG for every match of 2021/22 to 2026/27. Ratings are a multiplicative attack × defence model with separate home (1.41) and away (1.18) npxG base rates, plus 0.10 penalty xG per team-match. Prior = last season regressed to the mean (year-on-year correlation 0.87 attack, 0.78 defence). Shrinkage k = σ²/τ² = 21.3 games (attack) and 31.6 (defence), from 68 team-season pairs; promoted sides use k = 21.3 / 12.8. 100,000 seasons simulated with Poisson scorelines in 7.1s; ties broken on goal difference then goals scored.
Inter
Juventus
Roma
Como
Napoli
AC Milan
Lazio
Atalanta
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Bologna
Fiorentina
Frosinone promoted
Udinese
Torino
Monza promoted
Genoa
Parma Calcio 1913
Lecce
Venezia promoted