Is the table
lying?
Every Big-5 league, played out 100,000 times from today. Points so far against the quality of chances behind them, so you can tell a hot streak from the real thing.
Mirage
Bournemouth3rd on 0 pts, but the chances say 3rd (0 xPts). +1.0 pts of luck.
Real deal
Aston Villa2nd and the numbers agree: 0 xPts, 2nd on chance quality.
Underrated
Manchester United16th on 0 pts, yet playing like a 16th-placed side (0 xPts).
ProjClubNowLuck vs xPtsProjected points 10–90% rangeTitleTop 4Down
1
Arsenal1st · 0 pts-4.080–––
Arsenal1st · 0 pts-4.080–––2Aston VillaReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.078–––
Aston VillaReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.078–––3BournemouthMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.075–––
BournemouthMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.075–––4
Brentford4th · 0 pts-1.073–––
Brentford4th · 0 pts-1.073–––5
Brighton5th · 0 pts-3.070–––
Brighton5th · 0 pts-3.070–––6
Chelsea6th · 0 pts+4.068–––
Chelsea6th · 0 pts+4.068–––7
Coventry7th · 0 pts+2.065–––
Coventry7th · 0 pts+2.065–––8
Crystal Palace8th · 0 pts0.063–––
Crystal Palace8th · 0 pts0.063–––9
Everton9th · 0 pts-2.060–––
Everton9th · 0 pts-2.060–––10
Fulham10th · 0 pts-4.058–––
Fulham10th · 0 pts-4.058–––11
Hull11th · 0 pts+3.055–––
Hull11th · 0 pts+3.055–––12
Ipswich12th · 0 pts+1.053–––
Ipswich12th · 0 pts+1.053–––13
Leeds13th · 0 pts-1.050–––
Leeds13th · 0 pts-1.050–––14
Liverpool14th · 0 pts-3.048–––
Liverpool14th · 0 pts-3.048–––15
Manchester City15th · 0 pts+4.045–––
Manchester City15th · 0 pts+4.045–––16Manchester UnitedUnderrated16th · 0 pts+2.043–––
Manchester UnitedUnderrated16th · 0 pts+2.043–––17
Newcastle United17th · 0 pts0.040–––
Newcastle United17th · 0 pts0.040–––18
Nottingham Forest18th · 0 pts-2.038–––
Nottingham Forest18th · 0 pts-2.038–––19
Sunderland19th · 0 pts-4.035–––
Sunderland19th · 0 pts-4.035–––20
Tottenham20th · 0 pts+3.033–––
Tottenham20th · 0 pts+3.033–––Mirage
Atletico Madrid3rd on 0 pts, but the chances say 3rd (0 xPts). +1.0 pts of luck.
Real deal
Athletic Club2nd and the numbers agree: 0 xPts, 2nd on chance quality.
Underrated
Real Madrid16th on 0 pts, yet playing like a 16th-placed side (0 xPts).
ProjClubNowLuck vs xPtsProjected points 10–90% rangeTitleTop 4Down
1
Alaves1st · 0 pts-4.080–––
Alaves1st · 0 pts-4.080–––2Athletic ClubReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.078–––
Athletic ClubReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.078–––3Atletico MadridMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.075–––
Atletico MadridMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.075–––4
Barcelona4th · 0 pts-1.073–––
Barcelona4th · 0 pts-1.073–––5
Celta Vigo5th · 0 pts-3.070–––
Celta Vigo5th · 0 pts-3.070–––6
Deportivo La Coruna6th · 0 pts+4.068–––
Deportivo La Coruna6th · 0 pts+4.068–––7
Elche7th · 0 pts+2.065–––
Elche7th · 0 pts+2.065–––8
Espanyol8th · 0 pts0.063–––
Espanyol8th · 0 pts0.063–––9
Getafe9th · 0 pts-2.060–––
Getafe9th · 0 pts-2.060–––10
Levante10th · 0 pts-4.058–––
Levante10th · 0 pts-4.058–––11
Malaga11th · 0 pts+3.055–––
Malaga11th · 0 pts+3.055–––12
Osasuna12th · 0 pts+1.053–––
Osasuna12th · 0 pts+1.053–––13
Racing Santander13th · 0 pts-1.050–––
Racing Santander13th · 0 pts-1.050–––14
Rayo Vallecano14th · 0 pts-3.048–––
Rayo Vallecano14th · 0 pts-3.048–––15
Real Betis15th · 0 pts+4.045–––
Real Betis15th · 0 pts+4.045–––16Real MadridUnderrated16th · 0 pts+2.043–––
Real MadridUnderrated16th · 0 pts+2.043–––17
Real Sociedad17th · 0 pts0.040–––
Real Sociedad17th · 0 pts0.040–––18
Sevilla18th · 0 pts-2.038–––
Sevilla18th · 0 pts-2.038–––19
Valencia19th · 0 pts-4.035–––
Valencia19th · 0 pts-4.035–––20
Villarreal20th · 0 pts+3.033–––
Villarreal20th · 0 pts+3.033–––Mirage
Bayern Munich3rd on 0 pts, but the chances say 3rd (0 xPts). +1.0 pts of luck.
Real deal
Bayer Leverkusen2nd and the numbers agree: 0 xPts, 2nd on chance quality.
Underrated
RasenBallsport Leipzig14th on 0 pts, yet playing like a 14th-placed side (0 xPts).
ProjClubNowLuck vs xPtsProjected points 10–90% rangeTitleTop 4Down
1
Augsburg1st · 0 pts-4.080–––
Augsburg1st · 0 pts-4.080–––2Bayer LeverkusenReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.077–––
Bayer LeverkusenReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.077–––3Bayern MunichMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.074–––
Bayern MunichMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.074–––4
Borussia Dortmund4th · 0 pts-1.072–––
Borussia Dortmund4th · 0 pts-1.072–––5
Borussia M.Gladbach5th · 0 pts-3.069–––
Borussia M.Gladbach5th · 0 pts-3.069–––6
Eintracht Frankfurt6th · 0 pts+4.066–––
Eintracht Frankfurt6th · 0 pts+4.066–––7
Elversberg7th · 0 pts+2.063–––
Elversberg7th · 0 pts+2.063–––8
FC Cologne8th · 0 pts0.061–––
FC Cologne8th · 0 pts0.061–––9
Freiburg9th · 0 pts-2.058–––
Freiburg9th · 0 pts-2.058–––10
Hamburger SV10th · 0 pts-4.055–––
Hamburger SV10th · 0 pts-4.055–––11
Hoffenheim11th · 0 pts+3.052–––
Hoffenheim11th · 0 pts+3.052–––12
Mainz 0512th · 0 pts+1.049–––
Mainz 0512th · 0 pts+1.049–––13
Paderborn13th · 0 pts-1.047–––
Paderborn13th · 0 pts-1.047–––14RasenBallsport LeipzigUnderrated14th · 0 pts-3.044–––
RasenBallsport LeipzigUnderrated14th · 0 pts-3.044–––15
Schalke 0415th · 0 pts+4.041–––
Schalke 0415th · 0 pts+4.041–––16
Union Berlin16th · 0 pts+2.038–––
Union Berlin16th · 0 pts+2.038–––17
VfB Stuttgart17th · 0 pts0.036–––
VfB Stuttgart17th · 0 pts0.036–––18
Werder Bremen18th · 0 pts-2.033–––
Werder Bremen18th · 0 pts-2.033–––Mirage
Bologna3rd on 0 pts, but the chances say 3rd (0 xPts). +1.0 pts of luck.
Real deal
Atalanta2nd and the numbers agree: 0 xPts, 2nd on chance quality.
Underrated
Roma16th on 0 pts, yet playing like a 16th-placed side (0 xPts).
ProjClubNowLuck vs xPtsProjected points 10–90% rangeTitleTop 4Down
1
AC Milan1st · 0 pts-4.080–––
AC Milan1st · 0 pts-4.080–––2AtalantaReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.078–––
AtalantaReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.078–––3BolognaMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.075–––
BolognaMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.075–––4
Cagliari4th · 0 pts-1.073–––
Cagliari4th · 0 pts-1.073–––5
Como5th · 0 pts-3.070–––
Como5th · 0 pts-3.070–––6
Fiorentina6th · 0 pts+4.068–––
Fiorentina6th · 0 pts+4.068–––7
Frosinone7th · 0 pts+2.065–––
Frosinone7th · 0 pts+2.065–––8
Genoa8th · 0 pts0.063–––
Genoa8th · 0 pts0.063–––9
Inter9th · 0 pts-2.060–––
Inter9th · 0 pts-2.060–––10
Juventus10th · 0 pts-4.058–––
Juventus10th · 0 pts-4.058–––11
Lazio11th · 0 pts+3.055–––
Lazio11th · 0 pts+3.055–––12
Lecce12th · 0 pts+1.053–––
Lecce12th · 0 pts+1.053–––13
Monza13th · 0 pts-1.050–––
Monza13th · 0 pts-1.050–––14
Napoli14th · 0 pts-3.048–––
Napoli14th · 0 pts-3.048–––15
Parma Calcio 191315th · 0 pts+4.045–––
Parma Calcio 191315th · 0 pts+4.045–––16RomaUnderrated16th · 0 pts+2.043–––
RomaUnderrated16th · 0 pts+2.043–––17
Sassuolo17th · 0 pts0.040–––
Sassuolo17th · 0 pts0.040–––18
Torino18th · 0 pts-2.038–––
Torino18th · 0 pts-2.038–––19
Udinese19th · 0 pts-4.035–––
Udinese19th · 0 pts-4.035–––20
Venezia20th · 0 pts+3.033–––
Venezia20th · 0 pts+3.033–––Mirage
Brest3rd on 0 pts, but the chances say 3rd (0 xPts). +1.0 pts of luck.
Real deal
Auxerre2nd and the numbers agree: 0 xPts, 2nd on chance quality.
Underrated
Paris Saint Germain14th on 0 pts, yet playing like a 14th-placed side (0 xPts).
ProjClubNowLuck vs xPtsProjected points 10–90% rangeTitleTop 3Down
1
Angers1st · 0 pts-4.080–––
Angers1st · 0 pts-4.080–––2AuxerreReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.077–––
AuxerreReal deal2nd · 0 pts+3.077–––3BrestMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.074–––
BrestMirage3rd · 0 pts+1.074–––4
Le Havre4th · 0 pts-1.072–––
Le Havre4th · 0 pts-1.072–––5
Le Mans5th · 0 pts-3.069–––
Le Mans5th · 0 pts-3.069–––6
Lens6th · 0 pts+4.066–––
Lens6th · 0 pts+4.066–––7
Lille7th · 0 pts+2.063–––
Lille7th · 0 pts+2.063–––8
Lorient8th · 0 pts0.061–––
Lorient8th · 0 pts0.061–––9
Lyon9th · 0 pts-2.058–––
Lyon9th · 0 pts-2.058–––10
Marseille10th · 0 pts-4.055–––
Marseille10th · 0 pts-4.055–––11
Monaco11th · 0 pts+3.052–––
Monaco11th · 0 pts+3.052–––12
Nice12th · 0 pts+1.049–––
Nice12th · 0 pts+1.049–––13
Paris FC13th · 0 pts-1.047–––
Paris FC13th · 0 pts-1.047–––14Paris Saint GermainUnderrated14th · 0 pts-3.044–––
Paris Saint GermainUnderrated14th · 0 pts-3.044–––15
Rennes15th · 0 pts+4.041–––
Rennes15th · 0 pts+4.041–––16
Strasbourg16th · 0 pts+2.038–––
Strasbourg16th · 0 pts+2.038–––17
Toulouse17th · 0 pts0.036–––
Toulouse17th · 0 pts0.036–––18
Troyes18th · 0 pts-2.033–––
Troyes18th · 0 pts-2.033–––Members · Analyst and above
Signal or Noise is for lab members.
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01
Chances, not results
Each team is rated on the non-penalty expected goals it creates and concedes, adjusted for opponent and venue.
02
Honest about small samples
Early on, last season's level still carries most of the weight. Each week this season's numbers earn more of it.
03
100,000 seasons
Every remaining fixture is simulated 100,000 times, ratings uncertainty included, to give the ranges and odds.